2023 NFL Season Betting Picks Performance
Updated: Sep 21
Regular Season NFL Betting Picks: 15-8-1 ATS (65%), +22% ROI
“If there weren’t luck involved, I would win every time.”
- Phil Hellmuth, Professional Poker Player
Recall that our methodology for betting our NFL picks entails risking one unit on wagers with plus-money odds, otherwise betting to win one unit.
Regular Season Week 2: 9-4-1
Underdogs continued their strong showing with a 9-6-1 ATS record in week 2. We sided with ten pooches, based on closing lines, so we absolutely rode that wave (we also had the Texans +1, but Houston closed at -1). Our plays on point-takers finished 6-3-1.
From a different angle, after a blistering 12-4 start to the season, road teams were a middling 7-8-1 last week. Against this backdrop, the 3-1 record for our four plays on away teams appears quite impressive.
We also endorsed plays on two OVERs (both of which cashed). These recommendations seemed intrepid given that UNDERs were utterly dominant in week 1. As it turned out though, these picks proved in sync with the overarching trend for week 2, as OVERs' 13-3 tally last week was almost as commanding as UNDERs' 12-4 record a week earlier.
Finally, we played one favorite, as we sometimes (but rarely) do, which also led adherents to the cashier's window at the end of the night.
In all, a superlative 69% of our wagers covered in week 2, for a 30% return on investment.
09/17/23 Los Angeles Chargers @ Tennessee Titans +3 💰
09/17/23 Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans +1 🚫
09/17/23 Seattle Seahawks +5 @ Detroit Lions 💰
09/17/23 Las Vegas Raiders +9.5 @ Buffalo Bills 🚫
09/17/23 Las Vegas Raiders @ Buffalo Bills o46.5 💰
09/17/23 Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars +3 🚫
09/17/23 Baltimore Ravens +3.5 @ Cincinnati Bengals 💰
09/17/23 New York Giants @ Arizona Cardinals o39.5 💰
09/17/23 San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams +7.5 💰
09/17/23 New York Jets @ Dallas Cowboys -9.5 💰
09/17/23 Washington Commanders +3.5 @ Denver Broncos 💰
09/17/23 Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots +3 🚫
09/18/23 New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers +3 PUSH
09/18/23 Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 💰
Regular Season Week 1: 6-4
Per data from SportsInsights, underdogs have proven profitable bets in the NFL in each of the last five regular seasons. Point-takers' 2023-24 week 1 record is showing no signs of the turning of this tide. Dogs, in general, are 10-6 ATS so far this season, while road dogs are a stellar 8-2 versus the number.
Consistent with the operative trends of the young season, our stab at the Chiefs as home favorites Thursday flopped, as did our plays on the Colts and Giants as home dogs Sunday. We were also disappointed by the Panthers as modest underdogs at the Falcons. Still our 5-1 record backing road dogs helped us finish the week solidly profitable.
09/10/23 Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets +1 💰
09/10/23 Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants +3.5 🚫
09/10/23 Los Angeles Rams +5.5 @ Seattle Seahawks 💰
09/10/23 Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 @ Denver Broncos 💰
09/10/23 Green Bay Packers +2.5 @ Chicago Bears 💰
09/10/23 Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns +2.5 💰
09/10/23 Carolina Panthers +3 @ Atlanta Falcons 🚫
09/07/23 Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 -135 🚫
Preseason Week 3
Preseason Week 1
08/13/23 San Francisco 49ers -4 @ Oakland Raiders 🚫
08/13/23 Kansas City Chiefs +2 @ New Orleans Saints PUSH
08/10/23 Houston Texans @ New England Patriots +3.5 🚫
Hall of Fame Game
08/03/23 NY Jets @ Cleveland Browns +1.5 💰