NFL Betting Picks: High-total, late-season division action fertile ground for UNDER-backers—Bengals Ravens u46.5
In aggregate, the UNDER is 89-60-1 (60%) in NFL play so far this season. This observation represents probably the most consistent and pronounced trend in the League this year.
Zooming out, over the long-term (i.e., since the 2004-05 season), we have observed that in later-season Division action featuring above average O/U lines, the UNDER has proven particularly likely to cash.
The following chart illustrates the return on investment associated with betting on unexpectedly low scores in games featuring teams from the same division and boasting totals of at least 45.
Note that while high-total UNDER-backers suffered ups-and-downs throughout the first half of the football year, gains tended to accrue much more consistently in the back half of the season—save during the final two weeks of the regular season (perhaps as teams make concerted efforts to muster offense in an attempt to secure playoff berths).
Per the next graphic, in aggregate, the UNDER has proven good for a 16% long-term return on investment in later-season contests between division rivals when higher than average offensive output is expected.
We suppose this angle's success owes to suppressed offensive productivity resulting from the increased familiarity division matchups entail (teams play their division more often than they play outside their grouping, so they become more accustomed to each other's offensive proclivities and proficiencies, and, by extension, are better prepared to counter these tendencies).
Further, we posit that teams have worked out any early- season links and are looking toward the postseason by week 9, so defense commands greater import.
To kick off week 11 of the 2023-24 season, the 7-3 Baltimore Ravens will host the 5-4 Cincinnati Bengals in a matchup between the top and bottom teams of the AFC North. The Ravens lost a close game to the Browns last week, after winning their prior four. Similarly, the Bengals too stumbled last week, losing by a field goal to the Texans. But, also like Baltimore, Cincinnati had rattled off four straight wins leading up to that disappointing effort.
We are aligning with the preeminent trend this season and the consistently profitable tendency indicated above and siding with the UNDER as our first NFL betting pick of the week.
Happy betting!!