NFL Betting Pick: Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars +1

The Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average framework (now owned by FTN Network) evaluates team performance on a play-by-play basis compared to the league average, adjusted for situation and opponent. DVOA is widely respected as a predictor of future success. This metric gives the Jaguars a slight edge over the Bills, in the ballpark of a point, even before considering any home-field advantage associated with this matchup being hosted at Jacksonville's EverBank Stadium.

Jeff Sagarin's rankings framework is also regarded as highly accurate. In at least one examination, this approach outperformed other forecasting systems as well as opening spreads. Sagarin calls for a home win by 6.5 points.

Finally, Massey-Peabody power rankings give the Bills an ever-so-slight edge on a neutral field, but, after factoring in the presumed benefits of a sympathetic crowd and familiar surroundings, all of the aforementioned approaches suggest that the home team is likely to win outright.

Accordingly, we are counting Jacksonville plus the solitary point among our Wildcard Weekend NFL betting picks.

As further, perhaps more compelling, support for our ATS play on the Jags, historical context hints that the top team in the AFC South's scheduled return to the postseason after a two-year hiatus, following a convincing week 18 cover versus the Titans (as 13-point favorites), represents a solid spot for the Jaguars.

Point-takers in this position have delivered a statistically significant 41% long-term return on investment (assuming the standard vigorish).

As such, it appears likely that Trevor Lawrence and crew will end the Bills' streak of five consecutive trips to the Divisional Round (or beyond). We are wagering accordingly.

Happy betting!