WizeOwlSports

NFL Betting Picks: Siding with the UNDER in LA Rams @ Panthers and Bills @ Jags Wildcard Action Backing the UNDER in interdivision NFL Wildcard action has proven profitable, historically. Adhering to this simple rule of thumb has delivered a win rate that is statistically significantly higher than the breakeven threshold, assuming the standard vigorish, good for a 14% long-term return on investment. We hypothesize that casual bettors' overoptimism explains this phenomenon. W

The Broncos, Seahawks, Patriots, Jaguars, Bears, Rams, 49ers, Texans, Bills, Chargers, and Packers all made the postseason cut this year, after missing the mark in 2024-25. The reversal of fortunes informs an angle that has delivered a long-term ATS win rate that is statistically significantly higher (despite the relatively small sample size) than the 52.3% cover rate required to break even at the standard vigorish.

NFL Betting Pick: Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars +1 The Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average framework (now owned by FTN Network) evaluates team performance on a play-by-play basis compared to the league average, adjusted for situation and opponent. DVOA is widely respected as a predictor of future success. This metric gives the Jaguars a slight edge over the Bills, in the ballpark of a point, even before considering any home-field advantage associa

We like the Bengals for the home cover in 2022 NFL Wild Card action. A consistently profitable history-based system rationalized this play.

In 2022 NFL Wild Card action, we like the New York Giants to cover at the Vikings. We outline herein a system that rationalizes this play...

We describe a system based on backing underdogs worthy of the flyer in the NFL playoffs. On Jan 14, 2023, we favor the Jaguars vs. Chargers

We outline here a system that identifies high conviction spots to back UNDERs in NFL Wild Card action. For 2022-23 three plays are triggered

We lay out herein a strategy for betting big favorites ATS in NFL playoff action that highlights the 49ers vs. the Seahawks on Jan 14, 2023