WizeOwlSports

NFL Betting Picks: Siding with the UNDER in LA Rams @ Panthers and Bills @ Jags Wildcard Action Backing the UNDER in interdivision NFL Wildcard action has proven profitable, historically. Adhering to this simple rule of thumb has delivered a win rate that is statistically significantly higher than the breakeven threshold, assuming the standard vigorish, good for a 14% long-term return on investment. We hypothesize that casual bettors' overoptimism explains this phenomenon. W

The Broncos, Seahawks, Patriots, Jaguars, Bears, Rams, 49ers, Texans, Bills, Chargers, and Packers all made the postseason cut this year, after missing the mark in 2024-25. The reversal of fortunes informs an angle that has delivered a long-term ATS win rate that is statistically significantly higher (despite the relatively small sample size) than the 52.3% cover rate required to break even at the standard vigorish.

NFL Betting Pick: Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars +1 The Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average framework (now owned by FTN Network) evaluates team performance on a play-by-play basis compared to the league average, adjusted for situation and opponent. DVOA is widely respected as a predictor of future success. This metric gives the Jaguars a slight edge over the Bills, in the ballpark of a point, even before considering any home-field advantage associa

NFL Week 4 TNF Betting Pick: Seahawks @ Cardinals +2 The fourth week of the season kicks off with an NFC West matchup between the Seattle...

NFL Betting Picks: Kansas City Chiefs at L.A. Chargers u47 In the second game of the new NFL season, the Kansas City Chiefs will visit...

[A] play is triggered on [the] Los Angeles [Rams], and we are counting the home dog cover at SoFi among our NFL betting picks for Week 5

Given...constructive indications...we regard the Pats +1 as our highest-conviction ATS pick of Week 5.

We expand the use case for the Pythagorean Expectation in handicapping NFL action herein, by detailing another profitable system

We think the public is overreacting to one bad showing by the Bills, and we are betting on Buffalo for the bounce-back cover at H-Town...

[W]e recently instituted the modification of cross-checking our historical context-based picks against Massey-Peabody NFL Power Rankings...

Our Week 4 NFL betting picks include ATS plays on the Colts and Ravens, struggling teams facing unbeaten opposition

The Chargers are the biggest underdogs of 2024 NFL Week 4 and we regard LA plus the points as our highest conviction NFL (ATS) betting pick

The UNDER is 27-20-1 (57%) through the first three weeks of NFL action...our first play of [Week 4] is Dallas at New York Giants u45.5.

After last week's subpar numbers, we expect New England's offense to be sufficient to cover as hosts to the Seahawks in Week 2 NFL action...

The Texans are 6.5-point favorites as hosts to the Bears in 2024-25 Week 2 Sunday Night Football. We are backing the boys of H-Town to cover

NFL Betting Picks: Taking the Points with the [Panthers], Packers, Titans and LA Rams in Week 2 Bill James, who might be best known for...

Discover a consistently profitable NFL betting picks guide, predicated on backing UNDERs in division action

The Cowboys opened as 1.5-point favorites at the Browns. The line has since swung four points. History suggests bettors are overreacting.

We suspect bettors shunning New England is an overreaction to the Pats' tough times of late, constituting a prime example of recency bias.

NFL Betting Picks: 6-10-1 (38%), -17% ROI “If there weren’t luck involved, I would win every time.” - Phil Hellmuth, Professional...