NFL Betting Picks: 6-10-1 (38%), -17% ROI
“If there weren’t luck involved, I would win every time.”
- Phil Hellmuth, Professional Poker Player
Note: our methodology for betting our NFL picks entails risking one unit on wagers with plus-money odds, otherwise betting to win one unit.
Week 3: 0-1, -100% ROI
In the third round of regular season NFL action, we were not sufficiently convicted to publish any ATS picks. We did, though, expect the Chargers at Steelers to deliver more offense than the market expected, however, the final combined score proved disappointingly low. In retrospect, this result fits perfectly with the UNDER's continued run. Aggregate scores were below the number in ten of 16 contests in Week 3 and now sit at 27-20-1 for the year. Meanwhile, underdogs finished the week with an unremarkable 8-8 ATS record.
Happy betting!!
Week 2: 2-4-1, -32% ROI
The second week of action was brutal. We got out the gate quickly with a winning play on the UNDER Thursday night (not surprising, given that UNDERs finished Week 2 with a 10-5-1 tally), but our ATS picks finished 1-4-1. Consistent with the operative big-picture trend, we backed five dogs (point takers went 10-5-1 versus the number in Week 2). To our chagrin though, our pooches submitted a 1-3-1 record against the spread. This poor showing is explained by the disparity between home dogs and road dogs during the period. The former delivered an 8-2 result ATS, while the latter was 2-3-1 (unfortunately, we backed four home dogs).
But if at first you don't succeed, try, try again. See you next week!
09/12/24 Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins u50 💰
09/15/24 LA Chargers @ Carolina Panthers +6.5 -115 🚫
09/15/24 Indianapolis Colts @ Green Bay Packers +3.5 💰
09/15/24 Seattle Seahawks @ New England Patriots +3 PUSH
09/15/24 New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans +3.5 🚫
09/15/24 LA Rams +1 @ Arizona Cardinals 🚫
09/15/24 Chicago Bears at Houston Texans -6.5 🚫
Happy betting!!
Week1: 4-5, -13% ROI
From 2005-06 through last year, underdogs have exhibited an edge versus the number early in the regular season, winning at a 55% clip through Week 3, on a 482-401-22 ATS record. Teams taking points from their division have submitted an even more impressive 59% cover rate (which proved statistically significantly different than the breakeven ATS win rate, at the 95% confidence level) out to Week 5 of the regular season, on a 262-186-13 tally versus the number. With Monday night's action yet to play out, pooches are 7-8 ATS in Week 1. Further, uncharacteristically, the three Division dogs missed the number. To our chagrin, we backed all of them (the Colts did beat the closing line of +3, but we jumped on early and got Indianapolis +1). Our singular play on a favorite hit and our non-Division dogs finished 3-2 ATS.
The O/U is a virtually trendless 8-7 so far this year.
Our Week 1 wagers are listed below.
09/05/24 Ravens @ Chiefs -2.5 -125 💰
09/08/24 Vikings @ NY Giants +1 🚫
09/08/24 Panthers +3.5 -105 @ Saints 🚫
09/08/24 Patriots +9 -120 @ Bengals 💰
09/08/24 Steelers +3.5 @ Falcons 💰
09/08/24 Texans @ Colts +1 +105 🚫
09/08/24 Raiders +3.5 @ LA Chargers 🚫
09/08/24 Cowboys +2 -115 @ Browns 💰
09/08/24 Commanders +3 @ Buccaneers 🚫
(Wagers indicated in bold font reflect Divisional matchups.)
Happy betting!!
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