WizeOwlSports

NFL Betting Picks: Siding with the UNDER in LA Rams @ Panthers and Bills @ Jags Wildcard Action Backing the UNDER in interdivision NFL Wildcard action has proven profitable, historically. Adhering to this simple rule of thumb has delivered a win rate that is statistically significantly higher than the breakeven threshold, assuming the standard vigorish, good for a 14% long-term return on investment. We hypothesize that casual bettors' overoptimism explains this phenomenon. W

The Broncos, Seahawks, Patriots, Jaguars, Bears, Rams, 49ers, Texans, Bills, Chargers, and Packers all made the postseason cut this year, after missing the mark in 2024-25. The reversal of fortunes informs an angle that has delivered a long-term ATS win rate that is statistically significantly higher (despite the relatively small sample size) than the 52.3% cover rate required to break even at the standard vigorish.

NFL Betting Pick: Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars +1 The Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average framework (now owned by FTN Network) evaluates team performance on a play-by-play basis compared to the league average, adjusted for situation and opponent. DVOA is widely respected as a predictor of future success. This metric gives the Jaguars a slight edge over the Bills, in the ballpark of a point, even before considering any home-field advantage associa

We expand the use case for the Pythagorean Expectation in handicapping NFL action herein, by detailing another profitable system

NFL Betting Picks: Indianapolis Colts +4 @ Jacksonville Jaguars Many of our NFL betting picks are based on an effort to exploit cognitive...

NFL betting Picks: Taking points with Jags, Steelers & NY Giants sQuite improbably, Zach Wilson and the New York Jets upset the Buffalo...

NFL Betting Picks: Big line movement informs plays on four week 4 underdogs Historically, extreme changes in the betting line early in...

NFL Betting Picks: Siding with Four Dogs off Bad Offensive Performances In a piece last week, we discussed the reduced productivity of...

NFL Betting Picks: Take the Jaguars & Cowboys ATS We have observed evidence of positive momentum in NFL betting markets. We describe...

We're taking the New York Giants ATS at the Dallas Cowboys in the 2023-24 NFL season opener at AT&T Stadium. We detail our rationale here...

NFL Betting Picks: Backing low-quality dogs vs. their division The first action of the NFL season has historically proven a golden...

We describe a system based on backing underdogs worthy of the flyer in the NFL playoffs. On Jan 14, 2023, we favor the Jaguars vs. Chargers

We outline here a system that identifies high conviction spots to back UNDERs in NFL Wild Card action. For 2022-23 three plays are triggered

We outline herein an NFL betting system that highlights the Titans at Jaguars & Commanders vs Cowboys for covers in 2022 NFL week 18 action.

Reliable system says take the points with the Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Giants & Houston Texans In the best start since 2006-07,...

We detail an empirically supported system for betting NFL action that highlights the Jaguars & Panthers for covers in NFL 2022 week 14 play.

We are betting the Jacksonville Jaguars snap the Detroit Lions' cover steak at four games when these teams meet in 2022 NFL week 13 action.

History say 2022 NFL week 5, at the Jaguars, represents a solid spot to back the Texans for the road cover. We detail this perspective here

Last year's worst teams tend to be underestimated early in the new season. We're taking the Panthers & Jags in 2022 NFL week 2 to capitalize

We look at how betting flows are shaping up for 2022 NFL week 1 action and detail six lines bettors might want to jump on sooner than later.