WizeOwlSports

NFL Betting Picks: Siding with the UNDER in LA Rams @ Panthers and Bills @ Jags Wildcard Action Backing the UNDER in interdivision NFL Wildcard action has proven profitable, historically. Adhering to this simple rule of thumb has delivered a win rate that is statistically significantly higher than the breakeven threshold, assuming the standard vigorish, good for a 14% long-term return on investment. We hypothesize that casual bettors' overoptimism explains this phenomenon. W

The Broncos, Seahawks, Patriots, Jaguars, Bears, Rams, 49ers, Texans, Bills, Chargers, and Packers all made the postseason cut this year, after missing the mark in 2024-25. The reversal of fortunes informs an angle that has delivered a long-term ATS win rate that is statistically significantly higher (despite the relatively small sample size) than the 52.3% cover rate required to break even at the standard vigorish.

NFL Betting Pick: Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars +1 The Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average framework (now owned by FTN Network) evaluates team performance on a play-by-play basis compared to the league average, adjusted for situation and opponent. DVOA is widely respected as a predictor of future success. This metric gives the Jaguars a slight edge over the Bills, in the ballpark of a point, even before considering any home-field advantage associa

History suggests Kennedy Nzechukwu is somewhat undervalued at -135, and we are counting a wager on the slight favorite for the win among our betting picks for UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape. We expect Nzechukwu’s substantial reach advantage to keep Marcus Buchecha at range, and his southpaw stance to prove enigmatic...We also expect Nzechukwu’s high strike rate and strong takedown defense to mitigate Buchecha’s Jiu-Jitsu edge.

The antepenultimate match-up on the UFC 323 card pits Brandon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno against Tatsuro “The Best” Taira in the Flyweight division. Taira is just over six years Moreno’s junior and will enter the octagon after on the heels of a bounce-back win over Hyun Sung Park. Moreno will enter Saturday’s action after collecting consecutive wins over Steve Erceg and Amir Albazi (following back-to-back losses).

We are siding with Bogdan Guskov Saturday in what might be (...i.e., probably should be) Jan Blachowicz's swan song. In fact, Guskov's moneyline is our highest-conviction betting pick of the entire UFC 323 slate.

NFL Week 4 TNF Betting Pick: Seahawks @ Cardinals +2 The fourth week of the season kicks off with an NFC West matchup between the Seattle...

NFL Betting Picks: Kansas City Chiefs at L.A. Chargers u47 In the second game of the new NFL season, the Kansas City Chiefs will visit...

UFC Betting Pick: Betting on a Repeat of 2023, Marvin Vettori -125 Marvin "The Italian Dream" Vettori originally faced Roman Dolidze on...

[A] play is triggered on [the] Los Angeles [Rams], and we are counting the home dog cover at SoFi among our NFL betting picks for Week 5

Given...constructive indications...we regard the Pats +1 as our highest-conviction ATS pick of Week 5.

We expand the use case for the Pythagorean Expectation in handicapping NFL action herein, by detailing another profitable system