NFL Betting Picks: Colts +3 and Raiders +3

In a write-up for Week 2 NFL action, we detailed Bill James' Pythagorean Expectation. We cited in that piece a setup that demonstrated its proven ability to identify teams likely to cover the spread early in the season. The angle we described entailed siding with point-takers underperforming expectations, versus low-quality opposition. Recall, the Pythagorean Expectation is calculated as follows for the NFL:

We expand the use case for the Pythagorean Expectation in handicapping NFL action herein by detailing another consistently profitable system, this time based on betting against underperforming favorites...

This system laid out above delivered a statistically significant 16% long-term return and submitted losing records in only three of the years included in the examination period.

We think the key to the profits this angle has amassed is the familiarity associated with division showdowns. Teams in the same divisional groupings play each other more, by League mandate. As a result, teams become more aware of each other's tendencies and capacities, and, by extension, become better able to counter. Closer scores are a natural byproduct of this more intimate knowledge, we believe. Further, we theorize that, early in the season, when performance data is still relatively scarce, the market is more likely to overprice underperforming favorites, exacerbating the likelihood of underdog covers.

The set of criteria laid out above highlights the following four picks for Week 5.

Ravens @ Bengals +1 +105

Colts +3* @ Jaguars

Raiders +3 @ Broncos

Cardinals +7.5 -120 @ 49ers

The Ravens' actual win rate is 11% worse than their Pythagorean Expectation, the Jags are underperforming by 20%, the Broncos by 7% and the Niners by 13%. Our NFL betting picks for Week 5 though include fading only two squads of this lot: the Jags and Broncos (i.e., we are betting on the Colts and Raiders to cover the spread). We are passing on the prescribed plays on the Bengals and Cardinals, as we have observed conflicting data in these instances.

* The Colts @ Jaguars line has been temporarily pulled from the board at BetUS.com.pa, presumably due to uncertainty regarding Anthony Richardson's availability. The Colts' starting quarterback's status was downgraded to doubtful within the last several hours, as a result of a hip/oblique injury suffered in last week's win versus Pittsburgh.

Related to the question marks surrounding Anthony Richardson's ability to go Sunday, CBS Sports surveyed 11 oddsmakers to assess the value of NFL QBs over their replacements against the spread. This effort suggests Richardson is 1.44 spread points better than backup QB, Joe Flacco. Similarly, The Action Network's Director of Predictive Analytics estimates that Richardson is worth one spread point more than the veteran fill-in. In contrast, based on QB statistics including Expected Points Added (EPA) and Completion Percentage over Expected, QBR, QB Elo, Adjusted Yards per Pass Attempt, and team-level EPA and Success Rate, Fantasy Life, concludes that the 2023 AP Comeback Player of the Year's value is more than 1.5 spread points higher than his younger, leading counterpart.

The betting spread has already moved a half-point higher since Richardson took the hit from Minkah Fitzpatrick that sidelined him. Given the estimates of relative worth cited above, the line may widen more if the second-year man out of Florida is ultimately ruled out (which seems the most likely outcome, given the latest news). Thus, bettors inclined to back the Colts may be best served by exhibiting patience (forced or otherwise).

Supporting our play on Las Vegas plus the points, Massey-Peabody NFL Power Rankings makes the Broncos only about a half-point better than the Raiders at Empower Field at Mile High Sunday, implying 2.5 points of value with the road dogs. This framework is 12-6 ATS so far this season when the betting line undervalues road teams by a point or more (if the Colts move to +4 or better, Massey-Peabody Rankings will see more than a point of value with Indy too).

Happy betting!!