NFL Betting Picks: Guidance for Betting Wildcard Round Totals

NFL Betting Picks: Siding with the UNDER in LA Rams @ Panthers and Bills @ Jags Wildcard Action

Backing the UNDER in interdivision NFL Wildcard action has proven profitable, historically. Adhering to this simple rule of thumb has delivered a win rate that is statistically significantly higher than the breakeven threshold, assuming the standard vigorish, good for a 14% long-term return on investment.

We hypothesize that casual bettors' overoptimism explains this phenomenon. We believe mom and pop bettors' preference for OVERs (versus UNDERS) leads sportsbooks to share totals higher, creating value for (objective) UNDER backers.

All six of this season's Wildcard matchups feature teams from different divisions, so one approach might be to bet on the UNDER in each instance. While this strategy will not necessarily pad your pockets year in and year out (Wildcard UNDERs were 5-1 last year for a 59% profit, but were 3-3 the year before, for a 5% loss), history argues strongly that it is likely to make money in the long run. However, such an approach requires significant outlays. To reduce the variance this blanket approach might entail and the necessary bankroll, we propose narrowing one's focus based on additional observations.

For example, according to Steve Mikinen, for VSiN, over the last 14 seasons, when road teams won Wildcard games outright, the UNDER is 24-8-2 (75%). The extreme success rate for bets on disappointingly low scores in this situation is attributable to lackluster offensive output by home teams.

This finding supports backing UNDER 45 when the Panthers host the Rams Saturday. LA is the best team on this weekend's schedule, while Carolina is the worst. As such, the away team will very likely collect the straight-up win. This expectation is reflected in the double-digit spread as well as the 85% odds of winning implied by LA's -575 moneyline...(we should note, though, that we are also betting that the scoring disparity in the Rams' favor will be no more than a touchdown and a field goal, so we hope offensive output for the home team is not as minuscule as average numbers suggest).

Additionally, games with higher totals are more likely to end with combined scores that lie UNDER the betting total. Of the last 43 Wild Card games with O/U lines of 44 or more, the UNDER is 32-15-1 (for a statistically significant 68.1% cover rate). In contrast, the OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 games featuring betting totals below 40. Despite this latter observation falling short of the line in the sand for statistical significance (due to its small sample size), it might be prudent for UNDER backers to avoid the 38 point total for the Texans against the Steelers on Monday and, instead, key in on the Bill at the Jaguars, given that, at 51.5 as of the time of this writing, this contest sports the highest total of this year's Wildcard proceedings.

Our Wildcard Weekend NFL betting picks card indeed features LA Rams @ Panthers u45 and Bills @ Jaguars u51.5.

Happy betting!