WizeOwlSports

NFL Betting Picks: Siding with the UNDER in LA Rams @ Panthers and Bills @ Jags Wildcard Action Backing the UNDER in interdivision NFL Wildcard action has proven profitable, historically. Adhering to this simple rule of thumb has delivered a win rate that is statistically significantly higher than the breakeven threshold, assuming the standard vigorish, good for a 14% long-term return on investment. We hypothesize that casual bettors' overoptimism explains this phenomenon. W

The Broncos, Seahawks, Patriots, Jaguars, Bears, Rams, 49ers, Texans, Bills, Chargers, and Packers all made the postseason cut this year, after missing the mark in 2024-25. The reversal of fortunes informs an angle that has delivered a long-term ATS win rate that is statistically significantly higher (despite the relatively small sample size) than the 52.3% cover rate required to break even at the standard vigorish.

NFL Betting Pick: Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars +1 The Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average framework (now owned by FTN Network) evaluates team performance on a play-by-play basis compared to the league average, adjusted for situation and opponent. DVOA is widely respected as a predictor of future success. This metric gives the Jaguars a slight edge over the Bills, in the ballpark of a point, even before considering any home-field advantage associa

NFL Super Bowl Betting Pick: 49ers vs. Chiefs +2 We are backing the Kansas City Chiefs to hoist the Lombardi trophy when the dust settles...

We are siding with the Philadelphia Eagles for the win at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wildcard Round of the 2023-24 NFL Playoffs

We detail herein a historically profitable angle that guides O/U betting for the Wildcard Round of the NFL Playoffs.

In our first betting pick of the 2023-24 NFL Playoffs, we are backing the Houston Texans for the underdog cover versus the Cleveland Browns

We lay out herein a history-based rationale for backing the Dallas Cowboys at the San Francisco 49ers in 2022 NFL Divisional Round action...

We like the Bengals for the home cover in 2022 NFL Wild Card action. A consistently profitable history-based system rationalized this play.

In 2022 NFL Wild Card action, we like the New York Giants to cover at the Vikings. We outline herein a system that rationalizes this play...

We describe a system based on backing underdogs worthy of the flyer in the NFL playoffs. On Jan 14, 2023, we favor the Jaguars vs. Chargers

We outline here a system that identifies high conviction spots to back UNDERs in NFL Wild Card action. For 2022-23 three plays are triggered

We lay out herein a strategy for betting big favorites ATS in NFL playoff action that highlights the 49ers vs. the Seahawks on Jan 14, 2023

We are combining elements from the 2021-22 NFL Playoffs AFC and NFC Championship games into a two-leg, six-point teaser wager...

In 2021-22 Divisional Round NFL Playoff action, we are bundling the Rams at Bucs and the Bills at Chiefs into a two-leg, six point teaser...

We have observed several reasons to back the Bucs to cover Superbowl LV, including objective power-rankings based indications that make...

Great Spot for a 2-Pick Parlay: Packers -3 (-140) and Bucs/Packers o51 (-110) +231 We have observed that in NFL Conference Championship...

As a rule, back underdogs in the NFL playoffs. The simple strategy of taking the points in post-season action has delivered a 54% win...

In NFL Playoffs, we observe evidence of a short-term momentum effect. History says teams off unlikely covers should be trusted in their...

The Bucs will enter Sunday's action riding a five-game game straight-up win streak, including an eight-point Wildcard victory over the...