Great Spot for a 2-Pick Parlay: Packers -3 (-140) and Bucs/Packers o51 (-110) +231

We have observed that in NFL Conference Championship action, favorites that made the post-season have exhibited a ridiculous edge facing teams that did not m an appearance in the prior playoffs, covering 89% of the nine known instances (statistically significant, despite the small sample size), for a 74% return.

The OVER has likewise posted gaudy numbers in NFC Championship play, as indicated by its 11-4 record (74%) and 39% return since 2003.

Taken together, these trends offer extremely compelling fodder for a parlay. Let's walk through some basic math related to two-pick parlays to validate this thinking.

Let's examine the hypothetical case of the no-talent handicapper, whose picks win 50% of the time, no different than a coin toss.

Let's also assume a winning parlay, featuring two -110 picks, yields +264 (consistent with Bovada.lv's current odds schedule).

The no-talent capper will win each of his picks half the time, so he expects to collect the +264 on his two-pick parlay bets 25% of the time, for an average expected win of +66 per two-pick parlay:

+264 x 50% x 50% = +66

On the other hand, the no-talent capper losses the entire risk amount the other 75% of the time, when he does not win both legs of his two-pick parlays:

-100 x (1 - 50% x 50%) = -75

Thus, the no-talent, or 50-50 capper should expect to net a loss of about 9% of capital risked, on average, betting two-pick parlays, assuming the standard -110 vig for each pick and a +264 payout.

+66 - 75 = -9

It turns out about a 52.4% success rate is required picking each leg of a two-team, standard vig parlay in order to break even.

At the 70-90% success levels indicated by the systems described herein, parlays are highly profitable affairs (for context, a 60% capper that bets parlays should expect a 31% return on such investment).

Bottom line: The math lines up as to make a parlay on the Packers versus the number and the Bucs/Packers OVER extremely compelling (we bought a point ATS to get to the key level, but this is for our own comfort; history does not suggest this action is necessary). While we can't resist getting down on this play, we strongly encourage adhering to risk controls, in spite of the allure of a high-conviction 2.5 X's payout. After all, we do have do correctly predict TWO outcomes to collect. We're dropping two-thirds of a unit.

Happy betting!!