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2023 NFL Playoffs Betting Picks Guide—A Strategy for Wildcard Round Totals

NFL Betting Picks: Backing the UNDER at Houston, Dallas and Detroit in Wildcard Round Action

We are betting the O/U for 2023-24 NFL Wildcard action at the Texans, Cowboys and Lions

The opening round of the NFL Playoffs has proven fertile ground for UNDER-backers. When the involved teams are less familiar with each other, aggregate scores have proven especially likely to disappoint. We detail below our rationale for including among our NFL Wildcard weekend betting picks plays on the UNDER for three games.

This historically profitable angle offers guidance for betting totals for the opening round of NFL Playoff action

The angle indicated in the graphic has delivered a statistically significant (at the 95% confidence level) 23% long-term return on investment and has submitted losing records in only four seasons over the examination period.

The legendary Bear Bryant, who is best known for his prolific 25-year tenure as head coach of the University of Alabama football team, which yielded six national championships for the Crimson Tide, is credited with the oft-cited phrase, "Offense wins games … defense wins championships."

This adage might explain the success of this system. We hypothesize that teams' increased commitment to defense in the opening round of the postseason stifles offensive output and results in exploitable opportunities for bettors backing the UNDER. Further, we theorize that teams that meet less frequently (i.e., teams from dofferent divisions) are not as prepared to counter each other's defensive schemes.

Nerves in the early going of the playoffs might also hamper offensive productivity. We suppose that offenses execute more effectively as teams loosen up in subsequent rounds, causing the UNDER's edge to diminish.

Of six contests that meet the criteria for this system, we are playing the following three (and are disqualifying the other three from consideration, given that we have observed conflicting indications in favor of the OVER).

Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans u44.5

Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys u50.5

LA Rams @ Detroit Lions u51.5

Happy betting!!


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