NFL Betting Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -150 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

After starting the season 5-0 SU and 10-1, the Philadelphia Eagles amassed a 1-5 tally in their final half dozen games, to just limp into the postseason. Philly will face the Bucs at Tampa Bay, as three-point favorites, in the Wildcard round of the NFL Playoffs Monday.

In stark contrast to the Eagles regular season straits, the Buccaneers collected only four wins in their first ten games this year, but finished with a 5-1 SU run to earn the right to play for the Lombardi trophy.

Despite these teams' disparate momentum trends, and in the face of the upsets pulled off at Houston and, more surprisingly, in Dallas this weekend, we expect the Eagles to right-foot themselves and collect the win. Accordingly, our NFL betting picks for the opening round of playoffs include siding with Philadelphia for the win.

History supports our position, as, since 2003-04, teams laying a field goal outside their division have indeed tended to advance beyond the first round of postseason action.

The sample size is slight, but the 28% long-term return associated with backing teams in this position proved statistically significant at the 95% confidence level.

We theorize that the success of this angle owes simply to bookmakers' prescience. While upsets are more likely later in the playoffs, once less capable squads are weeded out, the early rounds largely unfold as expected.

Happy betting!!