top of page
  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports
    • Jan 12
    • 2 min read

2023 NFL Playoffs Betting Picks Guide—Taking a Side ATS on Browns @ Texans

The Cleveland Browns will host the Houston Texans to kick off the 2023-24 NFL Playoffs

Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports


NFL Betting Pick: Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans +2


The Houston Texans finished the regular season 10-7 SU and 9-8 ATS after rattling off consecutive wins and covers as -5.5 point hosts to Tennessee and -1 point visitors at Indianapolis. Houston's final push proved sufficient to qualify the Texans for a Wildcard berth in the 2023-24 NFL playoffs, where they will host the Browns on the afternoon of Saturday, January 13, 2024.


Despite notching a 5-3 ATS record laying chalk, including beating the number in weeks 17 and 18, bookmakers slated Houston as a two-point underdog in what will be the Texans' first post-season appearance since losing a Divisional round shootout in 2019-20 to a Chiefs team ultimately destined to hoist the Lombardi trophy (for context, the Browns were favored in their last four and closed out the regular season with covers in each, to earn the right to compete in the post-season for the first time in three years).


History appears aligned with the Texans' bid to collect the cover at Cleveland on Saturday. Accordingly, we are siding with Houston. The following angle makes our case.


This angle identifies a profitable spot for backing NFL Playoff underdogs

The system indicated in the graphic has delivered a wallet-swelling 51% long-term return on investment. Further, despite the modest 43 observation sample, this profitability proved statistically significant at the 95% confidence level.


This angle is 21-6 ATS (78%) in Wildcard action and is an even more impressive 11-2 versus the number (85%) when the spread is less than a field goal (both of these observations likewise proved statistically significant at the 95% confidence level, by the way).


We suspect the profitability of this set of criteria owes to the market's propensity to underestimate dogs in this position. As it turns out, squads without recent playoff experience are particularly vulnerable to the ATS beat from this spot, perhaps because they are not up for the increased intensity of playoff competition.


As such, Houston +2 represents our first NFL betting pick of the playoffs.


Happy betting!!


bottom of page