Six-Point Teaser (-120): Kansas City Chiefs -1 and 49ers @ Rams o40.5
We expect the Kansas City Chiefs to not only advance to the Superbowl, by dispatching the Cincinnati Bengals, but we anticipate the defending AFC champs will cover the seven-point spread. As support for this perspective, consider that, per FiveThirtyEight, the probability of Cincinnati making the playoffs was a meager 20% at the start of the season. Similarly, ESPN NFL FPI framework estimated the Bengals would finish the regular season with a 6-11 record, just above the Jets and Texans at the bottom of the AFC rankings and well out of the playoff mix. These prognostications should not come as a surprise as Cincy has gone 25-53-2 between their last post-season appearance in 2015-16 and this year. As such, the 2021-22 run makes the Bengals a Cinderella of sorts. But the AFC Championship game has represented the clock striking midnight for road teams in this position. Since 2003-04, squads that made it to the AFC Championship game after missing the prior playoffs have NEVER advanced to the Superbowl (0-5 SU).
More germane to the purpose of spread betting, we have observed that in the Conference Championship game, home teams facing opposition not recently acquainted with the post-season are 10-4 ATS (71%). And while a 14-game sample is admittedly small, statistical inference conveys a high level of confidence that the observed cover rate is not due to chance, and that this system wins at greater than the 52.4% breakeven rate, assuming the standard vigorish.
Getting even more specific, such teams are 12-2 (86%) against lines teased by six. Recall that a six-point, two-leg teaser (with a -120 vigorish) requires about a 73.9% average win rate on each leg to break even, calculated as √[120 / (120+220)]. As such, an 86% cover rate for each leg implies significant profitability on these wagers.
For the teaser second leg, we settled on the adjusted line for the OVER in NFC Championship action. Again since the 2003-04 season, the listed OVER line is 12-4 in such contests. This 75% observed cover rate likewise proved statistically significant different (higher) than the breakeven rate.
The historical win rate for the unadjusted O/U line is sufficient to imply profitability for a hypothetical two-leg teasers, assuming a standard vigorish (75% > 73.9%). When we adjust NFC Championship total lines by six, the ex-post win rate improves to a near-perfect 94%, on a 16-1 record. Thus, the OVER here represents an extremely high conviction element of a two-leg teaser.
Happy betting!!
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