Backing Jacksonville as slight dogs: Jaguars +1.5

The Jaguars were 5-3 versus the number during the regular season as slight dogs (i.e. taking no more than a field goal), while the Chargers were an unremarkable 2-2 laying three or less. Consistent with Jacksonville's value, and L.A.'s mediocrity from this position, we are betting that the Jags can best the number in the Wild Card Round of the 2022-23 NFL Playoffs.

Supporting our inclination, we cite the profitable system described below, which boasts a 76% long-term track record and a statistically significant 50% return on investment:

We believe this angle's value results from the casual betting public's propensity to gravitate toward post-season favorites against the spread (per the BetLabs database, since 2003-04 post-season favorites have received the support of a minority of betting tickets 82 times, while most bettors got down the better team to cover the chalk 130 times over this same span). Flocking to favorites might drive spreads wider, beyond fair value even, ultimately creating an edge for underdogs in this position.

Happy betting!!