2022 NFL Wild Card Round: Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
Laying the big chalk in opening playoff action: 49ers ATS
The San Francisco 49ers (13-4 SU) are laying just under ten points to the Seattle Seahawks (9-8) in the first game of the 2022-23 NFL Playoffs. Such mismatches are most common in the early rounds of the post-season, as, of 55 playoff games since 2003-04 featuring spreads greater than a touchdown, only nine such contests were decided in the Conference Championships or the Super Bowl. Of these nine games, chalk layers beat the number only three times. In fact, big favorites' cover rates decreased with each successive round of the post-season. Thus, if one is disposed toward teams with substantial expected margins on the path to hoisting the Lombardi trophy, the Wild Card Round represents the best opportunity to express such an inclination. The system detailed below indicates the ideal spot to back the biggest favorites in the NFL post-season.
This angle has delivered a 53% return on investment, which proved statistically significant at better than the 95% confidence level, despite the slight sample size.
The San Francisco 49ers are 4-2 versus the number laying more than seven this season, while the Seahawks are 0-2 ATS taking greater than a touchdown. We are betting these trends persists Saturday.