UFC 323 Betting Pick: Brandon Moreno Vs. Tatsuro Taira

Betting on a Significant UFC 232 Value Pick: Tatsuro Taira -122

The antepenultimate match-up on the UFC 323 card pits Brandon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno against Tatsuro “The Best” Taira in the Flyweight division. Taira is just over six years Moreno’s junior and will enter the octagon Saturday on the heels of a bounce-back win over Hyun Sung Park. Moreno will come into this evening's action after collecting consecutive wins over Steve Erceg and Amir Albazi (following back-to-back losses).

According to the BetMMA.tips database (which dates back to 2014), in non-title action, male fighters who won their last fight and are more than five years younger than their present opposition are 272-158 (63%)—per a one-sample z-test, this win rate proved statistically significantly different than the roughly 55% probability implied by Tairo’s -122 odds currently on offer at Bovada.lv.

Notably, the success rate for competitors in this spot is virtually unchanged when only the lightest weight classes are considered. Strawweight to Bantamweight fighters meeting the criteria laid out above are 49-28 (64%). These findings imply fair odds for Taira of around-172. As such, we glean strong value with the Japanese pugilist versus his...(clears throat)...'more experienced' Mexican counterpart.

Through a fundamental lens, Taira has proven to be a less active striker than Moreno over the course of their respective UFC careers; however, the more youthful man’s hands found their target at a meaningfully higher clip than Moreno’s (though it should be noted that defense has not exactly been Taira’s hallmark). And while Moreno’s black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu trumps Taira’s purple strap, the latter is the more active grappler, attempting, on average, more than twice as many takedowns and over four times as many submissions (per 15 minutes of action). In fact, three of Taira’s seven promotion wins came via submission, while Moreno forced opponents to tap in only three of his 11 UFC wins.

Thus, though Moreno has never been finished (all six of his UFC losses were doled out by the judges), Taira's relative youth and superior striking accuracy translate to the upper hand (so to speak) standing. Also, Taira's increased willingness to shoot for takedowns and his ability to finish via submission suggest an edge on the ground. All told, we see more potential paths to victory for the younger man. Accordingly, we are happy to pick the undervalued up-and-comer over the grizzled vet in UFC 232 betting action.

Happy betting!