UFC Vegas 112 Betting Pick: Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Marcus Buchecha

UFC Betting Pick: Kennedy Nzechukwu -135 vs. Marcus Buchecha

Eight-year UFC veteran Kennedy Nzechukwu is coming off a first-round submission loss (despite being listed as the -235 favorite) to relative newcomer and heel hook specialist Valter Walker—rather remarkably, each of Walker's four UFC wins were secured by heel hook submissions. The upset dropped Nzechukwu's UFC record to 10-6.

The Nigerian-born heavyweight will attempt to get back on track in a matchup with Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner Marcus Buchecha at UFC Vegas 112 on Saturday, December 13, 2025, in what will mark Buchecha's second appearance in the octagon (Buchecha lost a decision to Martin Buday in his UFC debut).

Our favorite betting pick for this fight is Nzechukwu's moneyline, which we locked in at -135 at Bovada.lv. Supporting our expectation for the slight favorite to collect the "W", we note that Nzechukwu boasts a couple of meaningful, natural physical edges, including a six-inch reach advantage. Reach matters in combat sports because fighters with longer appendages can theoretically land strikes while maintaining sufficient distance to avert their opposition's offensive efforts. Empirical data validate this hypothesis. The following chart, based on the BetMMa.tips database, which includes professional MMA fights back to 2014, illustrates that historical win rates consistently increase as reach disparities become more pronounced.

Additionally, Nzechukwu squares up as a southpaw, which is noteworthy because unconventional fighters also exhibited an advantage—albeit a smaller one—over the orthodox stance. The BetMMA.tips database finds a 54% win rate for lefty fighters facing conventional opposition (which, while modest, based on results of a single-sample z-test, is statistically significantly different at the 99% confidence level from the 50% win rate one would expect if unconventional fighters had no advantage).

More on the nose, also per the BetMMA.tips database, fighters with over four inches more reach are 103-68 (60%) in action featuring two combatants coming off losses, suggesting Nzechukwu -150 is a reasonable line.

Further, when longer fighters employ the southpaw stance, the historical win rate swells to 76%, on a record of 26-8. This increased success rate hints at fair odds in the ballpark of Nzechukwu -300. This result likewise proved statistically significantly different from the 57% win rate implied by Nzechukwu's -135 odds at the 95% confidence level.

We do not have a ton of fundamental data on Buchecha, given that he turned pro only seven fights ago and has fought for the UFC just once. He was meaningfully outstruck by Buday at UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. de Ridder, though. But perhaps readers should not be surprised that a Brazilian is more conversant in Jiu-Jitsu than boxing (of Buchecha's five professional wins, three resulted from submission and one by ground-and-pound TKO). What is notable, however, is that, despite holding a 4th-degree black belt in BJJ, Buchecha's grappling was essentially nullified by Buday's active hands and elite takedown defense. Buchecha completed only one of his 11 takedown attempts against Martin Buday, who launched an average of 10 significant strikes per minute.

Similar to Buchecha's matchup with Buday this past July, we suspect the newbie UFC fighter to struggle to get the substantially more experienced Nzechukwu on the mat, as, per the Tale of the Tape table below, Kennedy's takedown defense is also strong. Not to mention, Nzechukwu averages close to 12 significant strike attempts per minute, which will give Buchecha plenty to think about (Nzechukwu's striking ability has delivered seven UFC stoppages to date, in addition to his one submission win and two decisions).

In summary, history suggests Kennedy Nzechukwu is somewhat undervalued at -135, and we are counting a wager on the modest favorite for the win among our betting picks for UFC Fight Night Vegas 112. We expect Nzechukwu’s substantial reach advantage to keep Marcus Buchecha at range, and his southpaw stance to prove enigmatic—Marcus did submit the southpaw Korean power puncher Ji Won Kang in his first pro fight, however, Kang's shorter arms could not keep Buchecha at bay, and he could not defend against Buchecha’s grappling prowess. Also, we think Nzechukwu’s high strike rate and strong takedown defense will mitigate Buchecha’s Jiu-Jitsu edge.

Happy betting!