NFL Betting Picks: Kansas City Chiefs at L.A. Chargers u47

In the second game of the new NFL season, the Kansas City Chiefs will visit the Los Angeles Chargers, as 3-point favorites, in AFC West action Friday afternoon.

Neither the Chiefs nor the Chargers boasts elite defenses (fantasypros.com ranks the Chiefs' D 19th and the Bolts' 10th heading into week 1). However, history hints that a lower-than-expected aggregate score is most likely when these teams face off. Accordingly, we are backing u47 as our first official NFL betting pick of the year.

The UNDER has delivered an 18% return on investment, on a 137-88-5 (61%) record, since 2005-06 in open-air, intra-division action featuring a total line of at least 45.5 and a home team that made the prior playoffs.

The 60.9% success rate proved statistically significantly different than the breakeven win rate (assuming the standard vigorish) at the 99% confidence level, indicating a very high level of confidence that the observed results are not merely due to chance.

We suspect that the increased familiarity associated with divisional matchups (as teams in the same division face each other more frequently) results in enhanced insights into the competition's tendencies and proficiencies, which, by extension, translate to more informed game plans for stifling offensive efforts. Higher-quality teams (i.e., those with recent postseason experience), we suppose, are more capable of executing such tailored defensive schemes.

Interestingly, the profitability of this angle improves markedly, to a 43% ROI, when the home team is the underdog, as is the case this evening, perhaps because point-takers are less likely to post big offensive numbers.

Also worth mentioning, when the Chargers were the home team in this spot or the Chiefs were the road team, this system is 22-3, which implies a 68% ROI, assuming the standard vigorish.

Happy betting!