NFL Betting Picks: Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Rams +3

We cashed in on the Colts and Ravens in Week 4 based on the following system, which, once the season starts in earnest, endorses losing teams to beat the number versus squads with the highest cover margins.

This angle has delivered a statistically significant 13% long-term return on investment and has amassed losing records in only two of the 19 seasons included in the sample period.

We submit that the market's recency bias, or tendency to side with winning/covering teams, as documented by Durand, Patterson, and Shank (2021) and Metz and Jog (2022), explains the enduring success of this angle. As casual bettors shun losing teams, bookmakers shade lines accordingly, creating value with poor performers.

Despite a 2-2 SU record through four weeks of action, Green Bay sports an average cover margin of just over 5 points per game, thanks to narrow misses in weeks 1 and 4 and decisive covers (particularly at Tennessee in Week 3). In Sunday afternoon NFC action, the Packers are laying a field goal on the road to a Rams team that has dropped three of their first four games. As such, a play is triggered on Los Angeles, and we are counting the home dog cover at SoFi among our NFL betting picks for Week 5.

Supporting this bet, Massey-Peabody NFL Power Rankings makes the Rams live dogs for this matchup, implying strong value at the current line of +3. This framework has not only demonstrated long-term merit, but is also 12-6 ATS this season when home teams are undervalued by at least a point.

Happy betting!!