NFL Betting Picks: Siding with the Colts +1 -105 & Ravens -1 -125

Betting markets get too excited over winning teams and teams beating the number relative to losing teams. Evidencing this premise, Durand, Patterson, and Shank (2021) concluded that bettors are more likely to back teams that have won recently, particularly those that have won decisively. Metz and Jog (2022) likewise report evidence of recency bias. We believe bettors' favoritism toward recent winners skews spreads and creates opportunities for objective bettors. In an attempt to exploit this inefficiency, our Week 4 NFL betting picks include ATS plays on the Colts (versus the Seelers) and Ravens (versus the Bills), struggling teams facing unbeaten opposition.

The Steelers are 3-0 straight-up and versus the number, covering games with the Falcons, Broncos, and Chargers by 12, 4.5, and 7.5, respectively. In Week 4, Pittsburgh will travel to Indianapolis to face the 1-2 straight-up (and 2-1 ATS) Colts.

The Bills are likewise off to a perfect start, after beating the Cardinals, Dolphins, and Jaguars in weeks 1-3. Despite coming up just shy of the cover versus Arizona in the first game of the season, Buffalo's average cover margin is 18.5 points per game, thanks to blowout wins at Miami and versus Jacksonville in weeks 2 and 3. The Bills are matching up with the struggling Ravens on Sunday. On the other side of the ball, Baltimore righted the ship with a win at Dallas as the narrow favorite last week, but the Ravens dropped games to the Chiefs and Raiders over the prior two weeks.

Circumstances appear set for the Steelers and Bills to falter against the spread this week versus their lowly Week 4 opposition...

The angle described in the graphic has delivered a 13% long-term return on investment and has suffered losing records in only two years included in the look-back period. Further, this system's profitability proved statistically significant at the 95% confidence level.

As a separate support for our play on Indy, the Massey-Peabody NFL Power Rankings framework sees close to 2.5 points of value with the Colts at +1 after factoring in home-field advantage. This system deems the line to be off by over a field goal based on the current consensus line of +2 (as is our conservative practice, we will grade our wager based on the +1 line we secured). The Massey-Peabody approach has not only demonstrated its long-term merit, but is 13-5 ATS so far this season when home teams are estimated to be undervalued by two points or more.

As supplemental validation for the Ravens cover, our computer simulation framework regards the Bills as a high-confidence cover. This approach is 8-3 ATS this season on similar conviction plays.

Happy betting!!