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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

2022 NFL Week 18: Fading Big Cover Margins to Close Out Regular Season

Updated: Jan 8, 2023

Fading the Jaguars and Cowboys in final regular season action: Titans +7 -125 & Commanders +7

The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered their last four games by an average margin of 17.5. This spate of exceptional play boosted the Jags' ATS margin to greater than five points per contest on the season. Separately, The Dallas Cowboys' 10-6 ATS record is tied for the fifth best tally versus the number in the League. America's team likewise boasts an average cover margin of better than five points per contest. The Jags and Boys will face the Titans and Commanders, respectively -- two teams with losing records. History is clear in indicating an edge for Tennessee and Washington in this spot, and we are betting accordingly.

This angle is 362-277-18 ATS (57%) since 2005-06, including a 16-8 run versus the number this year, for a statistically significant 9% return on investment. Further, quite remarkably, this system has submitted a cover rate south of 50% in only one of those years.

We hypothesize that the consistent profits that have accrued to this set of criteria over time are rooted in the public's recency bias, which we suspect elicits support for teams that have covered of late, particularly versus non-elite teams.

Happy betting!!


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