NFL Betting Picks: Siding with Four Dogs off Bad Offensive Performances
In a piece last week, we discussed the reduced productivity of aggregate NFL offense this season, relative to output over the prior ten years. We noted that scoring was notably lower last year versus the long-term average and was significantly lower in the opening round of 2023 action than even 2022's reduced level.
Week 2 of the current season though bucked the trend of diminished offensive output. Teams submitted an average score of close to 25 points in their second game of the fledging season.
Still, nine teams managed to post no more than 20 points last week. We generally expect these teams' performance to normalize in week 3, and, per the historically reliable angle laid out below, we are betting on several covers from squads that struggled with the ball in game 2.
This system indicated in the graphic has proven good for a 10% return on investment over the lookback period, which proved statistically significant at the 95% confidence level.
We proffered a viable rationale for the long-run profitability of this system in last week's commentary.
For week 3, five plays (listed below) fit the criteria for this angle. We are passing on the Jets vs. the Pats though, as a result of conflicting signals. The four NFL betting picks we endorse are shown in bold.
New Orleans Saints +2 @ Green Bay Packers
Houston Texans +9.5 @ Jacksonville Jaguars
New England Patriots @ New York Jets +2.5
Carolina Panthers +5.5 @ Seattle Seahawks
Chicago Bears +12.5 @ Kansas City Chiefs
Happy betting!!
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