NFL Betting Picks: Backing a Pack of Dogs
As indicated in the graphic below, according to SportsHandle, NFL teams have posted an average of almost 23 points per game over the previous ten seasons. Last year, scoring fell about a point shy of this long-term level.
In week 1 of the 2023-24 proceedings, offensive output dropped another point-and-a-half below the prior season's reduced productivity threshold. In fact, a remarkable number of teams submitted below average scores last week. For instance, the New York Football Giants were flat as a pancake versus the Cowboys, failing to muster any points at all, while the Steelers produced only a solitary touchdown. In all, five teams delivered single-digit scores and 20 squads produced less than the recent League average.
Historically, over about the first third of the the season, underdogs have tended to bounce back versus the number following disappointing offensive showings.
The angle indicated above has proven good for a statistically significant 10% return on investment over the long-term, and has turned a profit in each of the last six years.
We suspect that early in the season, when there is not a ton of performance data to rely on to formulate forward-looking expectations, the market overweights last week's poor play. For worse teams (i.e. underdogs), this recency bias is magnified, we suppose, creating an exploitable opportunity for objective (and perhaps intrepid) bettors.
Given the prevalence of low scores in week 1, 11 plays meet the criteria for this system (FYI, since 2005-06, there have only been three prior seasons with as many week 2 triggers). The comprehensive list is shown below, but we are passing on three of these games, as we have observed counter-indications. The eight week 2 NFL betting picks we are playing, per this system, are indicated in bold.
Minnesota Vikings +6.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +5.5 @ DETROIT LIONS
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans +1
Los Angeles Chargers @ Tennessee Titans +3
Chicago Bears +2.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Las Vegas Raiders +9.5 @ Buffalo Bills
New York Giants @ Arizona Cardinals +6
Washington Commanders +3.5 @ Denver Broncos
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots +3
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers +3
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5
If 11 games constitutes more action than one can handle, consider a quality constraint to narrow the possibilities. Early season pooches off low scoring games have proven almost twice as profitable when they saw action in the prior postseason, compared to teams in this spot that lack recent playoff experience. The Seahawks, plus the points (shown in caps in the list), represent the only team to meet this heightened standard.
Happy betting!!