Historically reliable system says back Jaguars and Panthers for week 14 ATS wins
The Jacksonville Jaguars finished last season 3-14 SU, while the Panthers 5-12 record was little better. Both teams are slated to take point on the road in week 14, and we are backing both to beat the number Sunday. The following empirically-validated system rationalizes these plays.
Quite simply, squads that won no more than six games last season have proven solid bets taking less than a touchdown on the road...
This angle has been good for a hypothetical 12% return on investment since 2005-06, and has suffered cover rates south of 50% in only four seasons since that point (through 2021-22).
Explaining the consistent profitability of this set of criteria, we know that the casual bettors are disposed toward favorites. We expect that, in matchups featuring a team with few wins the prior year, bettors are generally even less inclined to take the flyer. The herding toward favorites in such instances creates value with the corresponding underdogs, as bookmakers move lines to accommodate outsized interest on chalk layers.
But in the face of our two underdog picks, we note that week 14 is historically the BEST of the regular season for favorites. Since 2003-04, NFL teams giving points are 152-114-5 ATS (57%) during the 14th round of regular season action (p = 0.06). Inclined bettors, however, should find solace in the observation that the operative system is 17-12 (57%) in week 14—not dissimilar from the all-in cover rate. Thus, we do not see evidence that the week 14 bias toward favorites impacts this system, and are comfortable taking the points in these two instances.