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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports
    • Oct 1, 2023
    • 2 min read

2023 NFL Week 4 Betting Picks Guide—Letting the Spread be Your Guide

NFL Betting Picks: Big line movement informs plays on four week 4 underdogs

Four 2023 NFL week 4 betting picks highlighted by changes in betting spreads

Historically, extreme changes in the betting line early in the NFL regular season have contained valuable information regarding ATS outcomes. This observation constitutes one basis of several of our week 4 NFL betting picks.


NFL betting angle says fade early-season favorites on the wrong side of substantial line movement

The angle indicated in the graphic has delivered a statistically significant 19% long-term return on investment, with only four losing seasons over the examination period.


We theorize that in the early going, given a dearth of data about current season performance, large moves in the betting line are indicative of the influence of bigger, sharper bettors, who presumably have better information. This is particularly true, we suspect, when such moves favor underdogs, given the betting public's penchant for laying the chalk—for instance, Golec & Tamarkin (1991) observed an increased bias against underdogs, and Humphreys, Paul & Weinbach (2013) likewise found that bettors gravitate towards the best teams.


Four plays fit the criteria for this system in week 4. The Atlanta Falcons opened as 4.5 point underdogs, but closed at +3 at the Jacksonville Jaguars (in the first international game of the season) [due to the lack of timeliness of this post though, we will grade our play an the Falcons at +7.5, the level available LIVE when we tweeted this pick]; the line for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers tightened from a +5.5 opening level to the present +3.5 for action at the New Orleans Saints (we laid out a separate rationale for backing the Bucs in week 4 here); the Houston Texans were originally installed as 4.5 point underdogs as hosts to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but the spread has since narrowed to +3; and finally, the Titans line has moved a full 2 points off the opening level, reducing Tennessee from 4.5 point home dogs versus the Bengals to +2. We are backing each of these dogs to beat the number this week.


Atlanta Falcons +3 @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 -125 @ New Orleans Saints

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Houston Texans +3

Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans +2.5


Happy betting!!


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