NFL Betting Picks: Backing a Pack of Dogs Versus Their Division

Underdogs slipped to 25-21 ATS (54%) on the season after favorites asserted themselves with a 9-6-1 run versus the number in week 3. In the face of the strong showing for chalk layers last week though, an early-season angle that has proven consistently profitable over the years, predicated on capitalizing on the familiarity between teams from the same division, endorses a slight dog for the cover to kick off week 4 action. We are wagering accordingly.

Over the examination period, this system has proven good for a statistically significant 14% return on investment, and has submitted only three losing seasons. Further, this simple strategy is 10-5 ATS (67%) so far this year.

We covered this angle in week 1, offering as a rationale for its consistent success the thesis that bettors' inherent inclination to side with favorites is exacerbated over the first few games of the year, given scant data regarding current season. We suppose this penchant is especially misguided in games featuring teams from the same division, as the more frequent meetings necessitated by NFL scheduling rules increase mutual familiarity, which, in turn, facilitates smaller average margins of victory for better teams. Accordingly, we postulate, there is commonly value with dogs in this spot, as bookmakers shade lines to take advantage of the market's disposition toward favorites, even despite the normalizing effect of the betting spread (see here for details, including empirical support for the tendency to back favorites to beat the number and for oddsmakers' proclivity to set spreads to capitalize on bettor preferences).

In addition to highlighting the Packers in Thursday Night Football action though, this angle identifies six more plays for week 4. We are passing on two, however, as we have observed indications for the opposing teams in these cases. The four NFL betting picks we endorse, per this system, are indicated in bold below.

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers +2

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills

Baltimore Ravens +3 -120 @ Cleveland Browns

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 -125 @ New Orleans Saints

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles

Las Vegas Raiders +5.5 @ Los Angeles Chargers

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers

Happy betting!!