2023 NFL Week 2 Betting Picks Guide—Backing Momentum
Updated: Sep 14
NFL Betting Picks: Take the Jaguars & Cowboys ATS
We have observed evidence of positive momentum in NFL betting markets. We describe below an angle that successfully exploits this tendency, and indicate two teams that covered the number in week 1, and that we expect to experience follow-on ATS success next Sunday.
Backing home teams with unsullied ATS records who appeared in the prior postseason has proven good for a statistically significant 22% long term return on investment.
When teams cover betting spreads, they are playing better than expected—either winning by more or losing by less than the forecast margins. We posit that, following superlative stints, quality teams (as indicated by recent playoff experience) playing on their own field boast both the skill and will to continue to deliver outcomes that exceed projections—Schwartz & Barsky (1977), for instance, find that home teams have exhibited an advantage as a result of greater familiarity with their field, physical and mental fatigue imposed by the opposition's travel schedule, and the impact of the crowd.
Four plays were triggered on week 2 covers, per the system detailed in the graphic. However, contrary indications are evident for two plays, so we are endorsing only the Jaguars and Cowboys, and passing on the Eagles and Bucs.
Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles -7
Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3
Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars +3
New York Jets @ Dallas Cowboys -9.5