NFL Betting Picks: Chicago Bears at Houston Texans -6.5

After falling to the Baltimore Ravens in the Division round of last year's playoffs, the Houston Texans kicked off the new season by just eking past the Colts (to our chagrin). The Texans are slated as 6.5-point favorites as hosts to the Bears in the Week 2 edition of Sunday Night Football. We are backing the boys of H-Town for the cover.

History appears aligned with our thinking, as reasonably good home teams with momentum have tended to see continued success versus low-quality opposition.

This angle has delivered a 19% long-term return on investment, and its profitability proved statistically significant at the 95% confidence level.

Consistent with the output of this system, Massey-Peabody NFL Rankings, which have proven profitable historically, give the Texans about a 6.7-point edge, after adjusting for the fact that Sunday's action will be decided at Houston's NRG Stadium. Thus, fundamentally, there appears to be a bit of value with the Texans at below the second-most important number in football.

Notably, so far, 81% of spread wagers tracked by The Action Network are down on the Bears, however, 97% of the money is behind the Texans. Given this context, it is not surprising that the line spiked from Chicago +3.5. Not helping Chicago's case, the Bears' offense was lackluster last week, to say the least; Caleb Williams ranked 28th by QBR, while the Texan's CJ Stroud's 234 yards and 2 TD passes were good enough to crack the top ten.

Given the lack of sharp interest in Chicago to this point, I would not be surprised to see the line expand to a touchdown. As such, we suggest inclined bettors add the Texans to their NFL betting picks slate sooner rather than later.

Happy betting!