NFL Betting Pick: Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 -125

Our first NFL betting pick of the new season is a play on the Kansas City Chiefs to beat the number as hosts to the Baltimore Ravens when the football year officially kicks off on September 5, 2024. BetUS.com.pa lists Mahomes and the gang at -3 EVEN, as of the time of this writing, however, we paid up for the hook to get the better number.

Patrick Mahomes has proven lackluster against-the-spread in regular season action at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. This top-tier quarterback is a mere 20-25-1 ATS at home (and 26-20-2 on the road) throughout his career, excluding the pre- and post-seasons, per data from the Action Network.

On the other hand, the Raven's on-the-field leader, Lamar Jackson, is a formidable 25-13 ATS in regular season away games, and an utterly superlative 9-1 ATS taking points when not at Baltimore's M&T Bank Stadium (Jackson's road cover rates are statistically significantly different from the 52.4% breakeven rate, at the 95% confidence level, per a one-sample t-test). The seventh-year man out of Louisville is also 4-1 ATS in week 1 play (Mahomes is a similarly profitable 4-2 ATS in the first action of the season, but only 1-2 kicking off the season from the comfort of home).

Despite these foreboding observations, we interpret the inaugural action of the 2024-2025 NFL regular season as representing a good spot for the defending Super Bowl Champions to cover the number, especially given that we were able to get KC below the most important number in football. The following graphic lays out our quantitatively derived rationale for expecting the Chiefs to best the Ravens by at least a field goal next Thursday.

The angle indicated above has proven good for a long-term 37% return on investment, which is also statistically significant at the 95% confidence level, per a one-sample t-test.

Also worth mentioning, last year this system went 2-3 ATS, for a -24% return on investment. The only other seasons when this set of criteria cost bettors meaningfully were 2009-10 and 2015-16. Those showings were followed by 99% and 96% ROIs the following seasons.

We regard this angle as more compelling than Lamar Jackson's impressive individual road cover rates, as it is more robust. For instance, this result covers a greater timespan (the last 20 seasons), includes data for all teams in this spot (which results in the representation of varied geographies and climates, talent levels and personnel availability), and encompasses the spectrum of coaching acumen.

Happy betting!!