NFL Betting Picks: Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins u50

Per data from Covers.com, the average NFL total set by bookmakers between 2001 and 2023 was about 43.7. The O/U line has been erratic over this span though. The number lay in the low 40s in the early 2000s, before rapidly climbing from a 2006 low to a peak north of 48 in 2020. Since 2015, however, when the NFL moved the extra point conversion threshold from the two yard line to the fifteen, the number has averaged 45.4—though it has been falling rapidly in the 2020s, to just above 43 last season.

Despite the volatility of the total line, regular season intra-division action since 2003-04 has exhibited a bias toward lower than expected scores. The UNDER has covered at a 53.9% rate, on a 838-716-29 record, for a 4.6% return on investment during this timeframe. This tendency has proven fairly stable too. Since 2013, the average ten-year ROI for division UNDERs has ranged between 3% and 6.7%.

Per the following graphic, the edge for Division UNDERs has been especially (exploitably) pronounced when O/U lines are high.

The angle detailed above has delivered a 14% long-term return and has submitted losing records in only four seasons included in the lookback period. The 59% cover rate has also proven statistically significantly higher than the 52.4% breakeven rate, at the 95% confidence level.

We theorize that the profitability of this system owes 1) to the more intimate familiarity of teams in the same Division, which leaves squads more aware of, and better prepared to defend against the opposition's unique offensive capacities and tendencies, and 2) casual bettors' optimism, which, we suspect, translates to an overestimation of scoring prowess—Paul and Weinbach (2010) observed that bettors are attracted to the OVER in expected high-scoring games.

According to The Action Network, the O/U line for the Bills at the Dolphins opened at 51 for their Week 2 AFC East matchup Thursday. While 72% of tracked O/U wagers support the OVER, 70% of the handle is down on the UNDER. As a result of this skew, the line has dropped from the opening price to 49, a level still well above the post-rule change average of 45.5.

Accordingly, a play on Buffalo at Miami UNDER 50 qualifies as our first NFL betting pick of Week 2 (we got 50 by piling on early, but we expect the UNDER to cover versus the closing number).

Happy betting!!