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Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports
Sep 142 min read

2024 NFL Week 2 Betting Picks Guide: When to Back Dogs After Low-Scoring Performances

Updated: Sep 28

NFL Betting Picks: Seattle Seahawks @ New England Patriots +3

We are backing Jacoby Brissett and the New England Patriots for the ATS win versus Geno Smith's Seattle Seahawks in 2024-25 NFL Week 2 action

The New England Patriots are 1-0 this season, after upsetting the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1, from the position of 7-point road dogs. As noteworthy as the win-loss outcome of this matchup though, is the observation that the Pats managed to beat the tigers of Ohio despite mustering a mere 16 points (for context, the average score was about 23 points last week, up about a point from the 2023 average, per Pro Football Reference).


The average NFL score increased from 20 in 2001 to almost 25 in 2020, but fell back to 22 in 2023.

After last week's subpar numbers, we expect New England's offense to be sufficient to cover as hosts to the Seahawks in Week 2 (it doesn't hurt that the Patriots boast a top-ten defense). Accordingly, our NFL betting picks card this week includes a play on the Patriots, plus the points.


The following angle, which has delivered a statistically significant 13% long-term return on investment, supports our take.


Early in the regular NFL season, it has paid to back dogs versus low-quality opposition following underwhelming offensive performances

We suspect the public's recency bias rationalizes the consistent profitability of this angle. We hypothesize that in the absence of a wealth of data to form the basis of reasonable expectations for the current season, bettors are more likely to extrapolate low-output performances into the future. This effect creates irrational biases against teams coming off poor offensive showings, despite the normalizing effect of betting spreads, we suppose.


In addition to the psychology-underpinned favorable situation for New England described above, the Massey-Peabody NFL Power Rankings make the Pats live dogs, estimating about a two-point edge for New England after factoring in home-field advantage. As such, there is considerable value in taking the points, per this approach.


Recall that the Massey-Peabody framework is based on the following fundamentals: rushing, passing, scoring, and play success. Cade Massey and Rufus Peabody's model has proven long-term profitable, with a 56% ATS win rate between 2011 and 2017.


Thus, we offer two credible reasons to consider siding with the Patriots to keep their streak alive versus the number.

Happy betting!!


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