NFL Betting Pick: Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers +8

Road dogs are 20-14 (59%) versus the number one game into Week 4 of the 2024-25 NFL season. In stark contrast to this showing, though, teams taking points in their building are 6-7-1 (46%).

Including the Dallas Cowboys at the New York Football Giants a couple of days ago (where the Giants earned the cover), there are five matchups on the Week 4 NFL docket where home teams are not expected to win. The Los Angeles Chargers are the biggest underdogs of the lot in their upcoming matchup with the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs (at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA). We describe mellow why we regard the Chargers plus the points as our highest conviction NFL (against the spread) betting pick this week.

In Week 3, Justin Herbert, the Chargers' starting quarterback, aggravated a high ankle sprain suffered in the prior game. This injury sidelined the Pro Bowl QB for the last ten snaps of that action and raised questions about his availability for the romp with the Kansas City Chiefs l, fellow AFC West members. Per the following graphic from Sports Insights, the betting spread quickly adjusted to the potential that Herbert would miss Week 4, shifting from Chiefs -4 before the exacerbation of the injury to as wide as -9.5 after. The number has come back in since, though, and has crossed through the second most important level in the game, as of the time of this writing.

We suspect the contraction in the spread in recent days is attributable to the anticipation that Herbert is a go for Sunday. If this expectation is realized, the line may narrow back toward its 4-handle starting level by kickoff. If Herbert plays and is productive, the Chargers +6.5 will represent a great value.

But personnel aside (because the closing spread will (at least theoretically) adjust appropriately for the active QB), history hints that the present marks a solid spot for the homeboys to cover...

Rationalizing the success of this angle, we hypothesize that the market overestimates division favorites through roughly the first quarter of the season, as a result of a sparsity of data needed to form the basis for team evaluations. Because teams play their division six times, per NFL scheduling requirements, there is a greater familiarity with tendencies and competencies among division rivals, and, by extension, an increased ability to counter particular inclinations and competencies in the early going. A common result is closer-than-expected games and underdog covers. The data suggests, however, that more accurate team differentials are sussed out later in the season and become reflected in betting lines.

Also supporting our play on the Chargers cover, we note that Massey-Peabody NFL Power Rankings make this game a PICK after considering home field advantage, implying extreme value with Los Angeles. Worth mentioning, the Massey-Peabody framework is 13-5 predicting ATS outcomes in games where the spread reflects more than two points of value for the home team.

Note, we got down on the Chargers +8 days ago, but we expect Los Angeles to beat the closing number, so we will grade our wager at the +6.5 level available currently.

Happy betting!!