NFL Betting Pick: Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants u45.5

The UNDER is 27-20-1 (57%) through the first three weeks of NFL action, but only 4-4 in intra-division action. We cite a compelling historical precedent that suggests lower-than-expected aggregate scoring is likely when the NY Giants host the Cowboys on Thursday in a clash between the worst teams in the NFC East. Accordingly, our first play of the week is Dallas at New York Giants u45.5.

The angle indicated in the above graphic has delivered a statistically significant 31%(!) long-term return on investment, and has submitted losing records in only three of the last 21 completed seasons.

We theorize that an exploitable cognitive bias accounts for the consistent profitability of this system. Over-optimism has been documented empirically in the NFL betting market, particularly in matchups with higher totals. For instance, Paul & Weinbach (2010) observed that the OVER garnered more of the O/U handle than the UNDER in games with high totals. Paul & Weinbach (2021) validated this conclusion.

Further, we suspect prime-time games draw more action from casual bettors, who are more vulnerable to succumbing to subjectivities. Given the propensity noted by Paul & Weinbach, we believe mom-and-pop bettors are more likely to overbid the total especially in division action, due to an underappreciation of the depressing impact on scores of the greater familiarity between teams in the same grouping. Our thesis is that squads that face each other more frequently, as do teams in the same division (per the NFL scheduling mandate), boast a more intimate knowledge of each other's offensive capacities and tendencies and so are better prepared to counter defensively, limiting offensive productivity.

The average O/U line was 43.7 between 2001 and 2023, and about 43 last season (we detailed the history of the average betting total here). Compared to these figures, the 45.5 number for the kick-off game for Week 4 constitutes a high-total contest.

Incidentally, and consistent with the studies citing the public's attraction to the OVER in games with high totals, per data from Sports Insights, 58% of money bet on the O/U line for Thursday's action is backing the prospect of surprisingly high scores. Accordingly, the line has moved from 43.5 days ago to the current number, a full two points higher. It is worth noting that, historically, when the line increased by at least two points from open to close, this angle is 13-5 (72%).

Given the trigger by the reliable and intuitive set of criteria outlined herein, which fits with the overarching trend in effect this season in favor of UNDERs, our first NFL betting pick of the week is a wager on underwhelming collective offense in Thursday Night Football action.

Happy betting!!