NFL Betting Picks: Riding the Wave and Backing the UNDER at the Pats, Giants and Chiefs

Per data from BetLabs, the UNDER is 56-37-1 through six weeks of action, after a 12-2 run last week. Moreover, combined scores came in lower than bookmakers best guess about 56% of the time since the start of the 2021-22 season, on a 353-279 record. We did not find a notable long-term correlation between cover rates for the UNDER during the first six weeks of the season and for the remainder of the year (for the math needs out there, for each year since 2005, r=-0.05), however, we note that the UNDER's profitability persisted after hot starts (189-164) in each of the last two seasons (in contrast, in 2019 the UNDER cashed in 48% of the time from week 7 on, after amassing a 54% win rate through week 6).

Consistent with the broad trend this year for lower than expected aggregate scores, we identify three 2023 NFL week 7 situations where we think the UNDER is likely to hit.

We covered the impact of strong wind last week here and here, offering as rationale for the long-term success of the angle described in the graphic, the hypothesis that teams generally turn more to ground plays, at the expense of the passing game, in the windiest conditions, in an effort to avoid higher incompletion rates and potential turnovers. This offensive modification translates to reduced scoring, as running plays produce less yards per play and resultantly fewer scoring opportunities.

Moreover, as teams in the same division are more familiar with each other (as a result of more frequent matchups), there is a greater ability to counter each other's offensive tendencies and capacities, which likewise keeps a lid on scores.

NFLWeather.com reports the expectation for 10+ mph winds in seven games on the NFL docket this week. Our NFL betting picks card includes the three that feature teams from the same division, listed below:

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots u41

Washington Commanders @ New York Giants u39.5

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs u48

On personnel, the New York Giants' starting QB, Daniel Jones, is still listed as questionable as of the time of this writing, after suffering a neck injury in week 4 that resulted in his absence from last week's action.

Happy betting!!