NFL Betting Picks: Broncos Chiefs u47.5

In an AFC West meeting, the Denver Broncos will visit the Kansas City Chiefs (as 11-point underdogs) to kick off NFL week 6. We are betting on a disappointing level of aggregate offense in this latest installation of Thursday Night Football.

The angle indicated in the above graphic has delivered a statistically significant, double-digit return on investment over the examination period.

As the NFL schedule necessitates teams face squads in their division twice per year, there is increased familiarity with division rivals. We suspect this more intimate knowledge results in lower scores, as squads become more aware of each other's tendencies and proficiencies (and, by extension, are better prepared to mount credible defenses). In games with the largest talent differentials (i.e. the biggest spreads), we suppose it is even more likely that underdogs struggle to produce points.

Separately, also supporting our expectation for a relatively low scoring affair Thursday, we note that high winds tend to inhibit scoring, perhaps as teams dial down their aerial attack, given an increased potential for the ball to sail, and instead focus on ground games. Running plays produce fewer yards per and result in a reduced number of scoring opportunities (to wit, so far this season, NFL teams are averaging between 5.3 and 10 yards per passing play, versus 3 to 6.9 yards per rush attempt).

The UNDER is 612-484-8 (56%) since 2003-04 when wind speeds reach double-digits, for a statistically significant 8% return on investment.

Winds are expected reach a 23 mph at Arrowhead Stadium this evening.

Thus, we kickoff our NFL betting picks for week 6 with a play on the UNDER in Broncos at Chiefs action.

Happy betting!!