NFL Betting Picks: Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears u43.5

We backed the UNDER in the first game of week 6 action Thursday, based on the tendency for high-spread divisional play to deliver disappointing offensive output. We noted though that natural conditions also supported the expectation for lower scores. Specifically, winds were forecast at 23 mph at Arrowhead. We hypothesized that strong winds would result in a greater reliance on the ground game, in an effort to mitigate the potential for errant passes. Consistent with this thinking, running plays constituted 51% of the Denver's offensive attempts, versus about 37% through the first five weeks of the season. Further, Russell Wilson completed 59% of his passes, versus 66% this season prior to this contest. So the expected impact of excessive wind was indeed evident for the visiting team.

On the other hand, rushes represented 40% of the Chiefs' offensive plays Thursday, versus 42% on the year, up to that point, so Kansas City's balance of attack did not indicate signs of disruption due to the inclement weather. Moreover, Patrick Mahomes actually demonstrated increased accuracy throwing the ball, connecting with his intended target 75% of the time, versus his average completion percentage of 69% through the five prior games. Nonetheless, the heavily skewed rush/pass ratio for the visiting team was sufficient to deliver the sweat-free cover for our UNDER play.

As week 6 progresses, we are going back to the well with another UNDER wager on a division game expected to play out in windy conditions. Winds are forecast to range between 20 and 22 mph at Soldier Field Sunday. The angle indicated in the following graphic rationalizes our position.

The system described above has proven good for a statistically significant (at the 95% confidence level) 12% long-term return on investment.

Again, against a backdrop of whippy wind, we suspect the Vikings and Bears will rely more on ground plays at the expense of the aerial attack, in an effort to avoid increased incompletion rates and greater turnover potential. This expectation influences our forecast for offensive output because, as we noted in our write-up for week 6 Thursday Night Football action, rushes generally produce fewer yards per play and result in a reduced number of scoring opportunities. (NFL teams averaged between 5.3 and 10 yards per passing play, versus 3 to 6.9 yards per rush attempt through week 5).

Moreover, we theorize that division games are inherently more likely to deliver disappointing aggregate offense because teams in the same division are better prepared to counter each other's offensive tendencies and capacities, as a result of more frequent meetings necessitated by NFL scheduling requirements. Supporting this thesis, since the 2003-04 regular season, the UNDER covered 52.6% of the 1913 games in the BetLabs database. This success rate proved statistically significantly different than 50%, at the 95% confidence level. Thus, the data indeed supports the assertion that the UNDER has a demonstrated edge in regular season division play.

Also, worth mentioning, we think it much less likely offensive coordinators give Kirk Cousins (#10 per the NFL QB Index, heading into week 6) and Justin Fields (#14) the greenlight to throw the ball in high winds that Mahomes enjoyed a few days ago—Kansas City's demonstrated imperviousness to wind is an anomaly, in our estimation, perhaps applicable only to the few teams with proven, elite quarterbacks.

Based on compelling historical precedent, the Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears u43.5 makes the cut for our lineup of official NFL betting picks for week 6.

Happy betting!!