NFL Betting Picks: Taking a Stab at o44.5 in Raiders Packers Action
We have made a case for the Packers to beat the number at the Raiders Monday night. Accordingly, we are backing Green Bay for the ATS win (see here for the basis of this prediction). Per the following angle, historical precedent suggests that if home team is to secure the cover, it is likely to materialize only after a shootout. As such, we are also betting the aggregate number of points scored in the final game of week 5 exceeds the expected total.
The angle indicated in the above graphic has delivered a 33% long-term return on investment, which proved statistically significant at the 95% confidence level, despite the slight sample size.
Explaining the success of this system, we suspect this spot lends to higher than expected combined scoring as a result of the relative lack of familiarity among teams from opposing conferences (NFL scheduling requirements mandate teams face the other conference in only five of 17 regular season contests). We suppose squads are less prepared to defend against more foreign personnel and schemes, so offenses are more effective. Supporting this thinking, the OVER cashed 51% of the time in conference games, versus 49% of the time when teams from the same conference matched up. This difference is statistically significant at the 90% confidence level.
We further hypothesize that the betting public's recency bias exacerbates the potential for the OVER to collect from this situation, as Joe Public is inclined to expect that home teams' offense is permanently impaired after one or more UNDERs.
Bottom line: we are adding Las Vegas at Green Bay o44.5 to our list of official NFL betting picks for week 5. Worth noting, the line has exhibited an upward bias since opening at 43.5, and sits at 45.5 at present, perhaps ticking higher most recently on news that Jimmy Garappolo has been cleared to play (after the starting QB for Las Vegas suffered a concussion in week 3 and missed last week's action).
But the success of this angle is measured against the closing line, so we expect the OVER to hit versus the number in effect just prior to kickoff.