NFL Betting Picks: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets +10

As of the time of this writing, the New York Football Jets are supported by a mere 29% of ATS bets tracked by Sports Insights, as hosts to the Miami Dolphins in post-Thanksgiving Day action Friday. Consistent with the lopsided take, the betting spread has moved dramatically away from the Jets, widening to double digits, in fact.

The spread increased from inside a touchdown just before the Jets' announced the benching of replacement quarterback, Zach Wilson, Monday, in favor of Tim Boyle, the fifth year third-stringer out of Eastern Kentucky.

History suggests the 3.5-point move in the betting spread on this news probably overestimates the difference between New York's two backup QBs. Accordingly, we are taking the ample points and siding with Jets for the home dog cover.

The angle indicated in the above graphic has delivered a 19% long-term return on investment, and has submitted losing seasons in only five years over the lookback period.

We suspect its profitability owes to the public's recency bias, which leads bettors to shun teams following soft offensive showings. We suppose extreme herding around teams facing squads that produced only a few points in their last game leads bookmakers to shade lines, which creates value with these recent underperformers.

Given the trigger from the aforementioned system, and after kicking off week 12 action with a (winning) Turkey Day teaser, we are continuing our NFL betting picks with an ATS play on the New York Jets Friday.

Happy betting!!