NFL Betting Picks: Taking the points in this matchup between two bad teams—LA Rams +3.5 -120 at Green Bay Packers
In a continuation of last year's 5-12 showing straight up, the Los Angeles Rams are 2-5 so far in the 2023-24 NFL regular season. After dropping their last two, at the Cowboys and versus the Steelers, the Rams will face the Packers at Lambeau Field Sunday, from the position of 3.5 point underdogs (at least, as of the time of this writing).
After finishing with a middling 8-9 record last year, Green Bay has lost their last four, and now finds itself in the same position as L.A.—2-5 on the year.
We are taking the points with the Rams, despite Matthew Stafford being listed as questionable due to a thumb injury suffered last week (Stafford will be a game-time decision, according to Head Coach Sean McVay). We are comfortable backing L.A. to beat the number on the basis of the angle indicated below.
This system has delivered a 12% return on investment, which proved statistically significant at the 95% confidence level.
We covered this set of criteria in week 5, related our (winning) play on the Bear at the Commanders. The following excerpt from that write-up offers a rationale for this angle's enduring success:
[W]e hypothesize that the betting public's recency bias and disposition towards favorites impels herding around even overvalued chalk layers (we have reviewed academic research documenting the propensities to overweight recent outcomes and to side with favorites on several occasions, including here and here recently). Worth mentioning, we attribute this angle's the drop-off in profitability for teams riding longer losing streaks to the possibility that squads that lost more than four consecutive games might be facing bigger-picture, more structural, issues.
Uncertainty surrounding the starting QB position for the Rams has created substantial line movement. Per the following exhibit, the Rams have shifted from being slightly favored days ago, to taking better than a field goal at present.
If one expects Stafford to play, take the the points now and add the Rams to your NFL betting picks card, while a spread north of the key three number (the most common differential in football) is available. On the other hand, if one believes L.A.'s starting quarterback will miss Sunday's proceedings, patience may be in order, as the line might move a bit higher still.
Happy betting!!