NFL Betting Picks: Six Plays Highlighted In Last Hurrah for Early-Season Angle
By now, we have documented ad nauseum the merit of backing point-takers off disappointing offensive showings early in the NFL regular season (see here, here, here and here). Week 6 marks the final period for which this system applies, and, after a 13-11-1 ATS (54%) record between weeks 2 and 5 for bets we endorsed per this set of criteria, there are plenty of triggers before its hibernation period commences.
Over the long-term this approach has proven good for a statistically significant 9% profit over the examination period.
At the risk of repeating ourselves, we rationalize the success of this angle with the hypothesis that casual bettors' recency bias leads to the extrapolation of bad offensive showings into the future, particularly for poorer squads (read: underdogs) and especially early in the season, when current year performance data is limited.
We have also reviewed academic literature documenting the preference for favorites, versus the number. Golec & Tamarkin (1991), for instance, observed an increased bias against underdogs; Humphreys, Paul & Weinbach (2013) likewise found that bettors gravitate towards the best teams.
Bookies shade lines to exploit this cognitive bias and maximize their profits—Levitt (2004) concluded that linemakers set prices to capitalize on bettor biases, while Humphreys (2011) noted that sportsbooks tolerate unbalanced betting in order to generate excess profits. This sequence of related events creates opportunity for objective market participants with dogs.
The aforementioned NFL betting picks guide seven betting picks in its last act of the 2023-24 season, but we disqualified one on the basis of conflicting data. All are listed below, but the wagers we endorse are indicated in bold print (any picks indicated in caps reflect divisional matchups, which have proven meaningfully more profitable, historically).
Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans +4
Washington Commanders + 2 @ Atlanta Falcons
San Francisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns +10
New Orleans Saints @ Houston Texans +1.5
New England Patriots +3.5 -130 @ Las Vegas Raiders
ARIZONA CARDINALS + 7 -120 @ Los Angeles Rams
New York Giants +14.5 -115 @ Buffalo Bills
Happy betting!!