NFL Betting Picks: Taking the points in this TNF matchup between two bad teams—Carolina Panthers +3.5 -120

The Panthers are 1-7 on the season and represent the bottom of the barrel in the NFC South. Carolina will matchup with the Chicago Bears Thursday at Soldier Field to kick off week 10 NFL action. At 2-7, the Bears are little better. Chicago boasts the worst record in the NFC North. Strong historical precedent suggests the prudent move is to take the points and side with the road team for the cover. We are betting accordingly.

The angle indicated in the graphic has proven good for a 20% long-term return on investment (statistically significant at the 95% confidence level) and has submitted a losing record in only three seasons over the examination period.

We hypothesize that this system has consistently padded adherents' wallets because games featuring teams with poor records are more up for grabs. Factors such as non-elite talent, poor management and a lack of a winning mentality affect bad squads more evenly, eroding the advantage favorites typically enjoy. Supporting this assertion, we have observed that, since 2003-04, underdogs have secured the straight up win about 40% of the time in regular season action featuring two teams with bad records, versus about a 34% win rate for point takers in other situations (inference tests find this difference to be statistically significant). Given that bad favorites tend to exhibit less of an edge versus other bad teams, taking the points enhances the probability of cashing in—as teams don't even have to win outright to lead backers to the cashier's window. Further, this effect is amplified in non-division action, we suppose, because a relative lack of familiarity (owing to less frequent meetings) leaves bad favorites less prepared to counter even bad opposition's offensive tendencies.

As such, the Panthers +3.5 represents our inaugural NFL betting pick for week 10.

On personnel, the Bears' starting quarterback, Justin Fields, was definitively ruled out of tonight's action Wednesday, due to a dislocated thumb suffered in the loss versus the Vikings several weeks ago. Fields will miss his fourth consecutive game. As is illustarted in the following chart, per the Action Network, the betting spread dropped from as high as the Panthers +4 to the current +3 (or a juiced up +3.5) level on the announcement.

We paid up for the hook, given that three is the most common margin of victory in the NFL.

Happy betting!!