Betting Pick: Kansas Chiefs -6.5 -135

In the first game of the 2023 NFL season, the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs will host the Detroit Lions, as seven point favorites, on Thursday September 7th. We are backing Kansas City for the cover. We paid up for the hook to get below the key seven level, given the historical significance of this threshold, however, we expect the Chiefs to cover the closing line as listed.

PFF grades Detroit's offseason moves B+, given efforts to shore up their soft secondary and the acquisition of running back David Montgomery. Still, history suggests Kansas City is likely to beat the Lions by more than a touchdown and PAT.

Supporting the idea of the home cover, we note that the following angle has delivered a statistically significant 45% return on investment over the last 19 years, with only three losing seasons over this horizon.

We theorize that the overall success quality Thursday Night Football home favorites have enjoyed over non-divisional opposition owes to superior teams (i.e. favorites) being better suited to perform well with fewer rest/prep days. Additionally, favorites, we suppose, are more likely to amass larger win margins against competition outside their division, whom they play less frequently and who, by extension, are less intimately familiar with their offensive tendencies and competencies.

Happy betting!!