NFL Preseason Betting Pick: New England Patriots +3.5

We came out the gate strong this NFL preseason, with a winning play on the Cleveland Browns for the cover as hosts to the New York Jets in the 2023 Hall of Fame Game. A week later, we are going back to the proverbial well, as the same angle that justified our siding with the home team as short dogs in the first action of the new season favors the Patriots plus the points when Houston comes to in week 1 preseason action. Accordingly, our first betting pick of the 2023 NFL preseason week 1 slate is a play on the Pats.

The line has been all over the place for this one. Per SportsInsights, New England opened as 1.5 point dogs, then swung to ever-so-sight favorites Monday, before sinking to take better than a field goal as of the time of this writing. This volatility may have something to do with Bill Belichik's non-commital demeanor in the face of questions about personnel for Thursday' action. The veteran coach has yet to announce who will line up under Center, indicating only that his most inexperienced players will get the bulk of Thursday's reps. On the other hand, Houston has declared rookie QB, C.J. Stoud, as the Texans' starter for this affair.

Our enthusiasm for New England at this price, despite Belichik's mystique, is rationalized by the angle described below.

Backing underdogs in Thursday night preseason play has proven good for a 14% long-term return on investment versus teams that missed the last postseason.

See here for details regarding how this system has fared historically, as well as for our hypothesis that justifies the observed (statistically significant) long-term profitability.

Happy betting!!