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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports
    • Sep 10, 2023
    • 1 min read

2023 NFL Week 1 Betting Picks Guide—Tailing the Sharp Action

Updated: Sep 14, 2023

Tampa Bay at Minnesota NFL Betting Pick: Bucs +4.5

Baker Mayfield's Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to Minnesota to face Kirk Cousin's Vikings to open the 2023-24 NFL season

According to data from SportsInsights, 61% of spread bets are down on Kirk Cousins and the Vikings when Minnesota hosts the new-look Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday morning. However, despite what, on the surface, looks like scant support the Bucs are taking 59% of dollars staked versus the number. This sharp action has flattened the spread from an opening level of Tampa Bay +6.5 to the current +4.5.


SportsInsights reports the consensus spread is down two points off the opening level for Bucs Vikings action in week 1 of the NFL 2023-24 regular season

Per the following graphic, history suggests this setup probably contains information. Accordingly, our NFL betting pick for this contest is Baker Mayfield and company for the week 1 road cover.


An NFL ATS betting angle that has delivered a long-term 20% return suggests early-season dogs that see favorable line movement are worth a flyer

The angle indicated above has proven good for a statistically significant 20% return on investment since 2005-06, and has submitted cover rates below 50% in only three seasons during the observation period.


Happy betting!!


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