NFL Betting Picks: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Bucs -2.5 -120

The 3-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers sit atop the NFC South division, despite being manhandled by the Detroit Lions in their own building last week. In their second straight at Raymond James Stadium, the Bucs are slated as modest favorites versus the 3-3 Atlanta Falcons, who are 3rd in the same division, in week 7 action. We expect Baker Mayfield to right-foot Tampa Bay and lead the team to the win and cover Sunday. The angle indicated below rationalizes this outlook.

This approach has delivered a statistically significant 23% return on investment over the examination period, and has delivered a losing record in only one of those seasons.

Explaining the consistent success of this simple system, we suspect that, generally speaking, good teams lose badly as a result of lapses in mental acuity, not due to a lack of physical ability. Further, we suppose bad losses motivate such teams to refocus, which is usually all that is required for the delivery of better outcomes in their next out.

When that next action is versus teams from the same conference (which suggests greater familiarity and fewer surprises, as a result of the NFL scheduling mandate that requires teams to play their conference ten times per season), the likelihood of improved performance is higher.

Worth mentioning, when good teams play within their division following big losses, as will be the case in Tampa Sunday, their long-term success versus the number is an even more impressive 53-28-1 (65%), for a 28% return.

Accordingly, the Bucs -2.5, as hosts to the Dirty Birds, makes the cut on our NFL betting picks week 7 card.

Happy betting!!