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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

2023 NFL Week 3 Betting Picks Guide—Clash of the Have-Nots

Updated: Sep 23, 2023

NFL Betting Pick: Backing the Los Angeles Chargers for the ATS win at the Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings finished last season 13-4, one game worse than the Chiefs and Eagles, whose 14-3 records tied for the best regular season showing in the NFL. In an unlikely turn though, Minnesota is still searching for its first win heading into game 3 of the new season.

Similarly, with two games in the books for the new year, and after submitting a respectable 10-7 record last season that earned a Wildcard spot in the playoffs, the Chargers too have yet to taste the thrill of victory.

History says underdogs boast a decided edge in matchups among winless teams. As such, we are adding the Los Angeles Chargers +1 to our list of official NFL betting picks for week 3.

This historically profitable NFL betting angle says take the points in matchups featuring two teams searching for their first win

The angle indicated in the graphic has proven good for a statistically significant 26% return on investment (at the 95% confidence level) over the examination period.

To explain the success of this approach, consider the following context. Since the 2003-04 season, underdogs pulled off the upset with a 33% frequency. Backing teams in this spot on the moneyline would have resulted in an aggregate 3% loss. However, in action featuring teams that lost every game, point-takers proved statistically significantly more likely to collect the straight up win. Pooches won 41% of the time under this circumstance, for a 15% return on investment. Given that either of two struggling teams sport a meaningful chance of securing the 'W', it seems rational to conclude that the points are a bigger determinant of which squad covers the spread in these instances.

As is illustrated on the chart below, per The Action Network, the #MINvsLAC line has swung rather dramatically from an opening level of Los Angeles -1.5 to the current +1. This volatility poses an obvious risk to this play, as, if the spread moves back to favor the Chargers at kickoff, this trigger will be invalidated.

The Action Network reports significant movement in the line for the Minnesota Vikings at LA Chargers in 2023-24 NFL week 3 action

As of the time of this writing though, 56% of the ATS handle is down on the Vikings, so it appears improbable (but certainly not impossible) that this signal will be revoked.

Happy betting!!


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