NFL Betting Picks: Backing Bengals -2.5 -125 and Panthers +14/+14.5
We have observed evidence that ATS win rates are subject to a mathematical concept known as reversion to the mean. Stated simply, this premise suggests that teams that experience significant success ag ainst-the-spread early in the season are subject to lower cover rates later in the season, as ATS win rates tend toward average (i.e. 50%) over the entirety of the season.
The Seahawks are 3-1 versus the number heading into week 6, for a 75% cover rate. Seattle will face the 1-3-1 ATS (25%) Bengals in Cincinnati Sunday. Similarly, the Panthers, who have yet to cover a game this season, are on the road the road at the Dolphins, whose 4-1 (80%) ATS record is tied for 'most bettor-friendly team in the League' honors. We are siding with both Cincinnati and Carolina to beat the number.
The angle detailed in the graphic has delivered a statistically significant 18% long-term return on investment, with only four losing seasons over the examination period.
We suspect the key to this system's success is recency bias, which leads the betting public to expect covering teams to continue to beat the number, and struggling to continue to experience ATS hardship. As bettors flock toward covering teams and shun ATS losers, lines adjust accordingly and value is ultimately created with squads boasting the worst records versus those with winning records.
On the basis of this hypothesis and the supporting empirical data, we endorse the Bengals and Panthers as week 6 NFL betting picks.